People line up outside Kentucky Career Center prior to its opening to find assistance with their unemployment claims in Frankfort, Kentucky, US, on 18 June 2020. File Photo/Reuters/Bryan Woolston
By Ann Saphir and Jonnelle Marte | Reuters
ON THE WEB, 5 November 2020
It’s still not clear yet if the next US president will be incumbent Donald Trump or Democratic challenger Joe Biden, but whoever triumphs will face monumental challenges on the economic front.
The recession has been ugly. It has wiped away more than a year of economic output and more than five years of jobs growth.
The workforce is now smaller than it was a year before Trump first took office.
One bright spot – consumer spending – is stronger than it was right after the pandemic exploded in March, but still only back to where it was last June.
Housing prices are on the rise, which is a great thing for US homeowners but at the same time is worsening the affordability crisis for aspiring home buyers.
Manufacturing activity – a key concern in the Midwestern battleground states – has rebounded, but manufacturing employment is in worse shape than employment overall.
And the coronavirus is still surging across most of the United States. Nearly 6,000 people died last week, and there’s growing concern that the US might need to reinstate lockdowns that happened across Europe in order to get it under control.
But despite signs the economy has begun to slow again amid another viral onslaught, “it is almost certain that the economy will get better over the course of 2021,” says Jason Furman, a key economic advisor to Barack Obama, the last US president elected during a time of economic turmoil.
Late 2021 is still a long ways away, not just in political terms but for those living paycheck to paycheck, or out of work.
Federal Reserve policymaker projections put unemployment at 5.5% by the end of next year – worse than the 4.7% when Trump was first elected, but an improvement over the current 7.9%.
Beyond jobs lost and economic output curtailed, either Trump or Biden will face a list of long-term headwinds including deepening inequality, rising federal debt and tattered international trade relations.
In the run-up to the election, Trump consistently polled better than Biden on his ability to create jobs and manage the economy, if not the virus.
But even with the election outcome uncertain, and likely to remain so for some time amid legal challenges, stock market investors like what they see.
That’s partly because Republicans look likely to keep their hold on the Senate, leaving policy priorities relatively unchanged if it’s Trump emerging the winner, or as preventive force to a president Biden from trying to push through any big policy changes should he come out on top in the ballot box.
It’s also because Senate Majority Leader Republican Mitch McConnell signaled Wednesday he was open to a new coronavirus aid bill in the “lame duck” session before the elected members of Senate and US House of Representatives are sworn in.
For the still-weak economy, a lot will depend on the timing, size and shape of a pandemic relief package, which eluded lawmakers and the White House before the election.
A more modest fiscal package could mean “the growth outlook and corporate profits may not be as vigorous as hoped,” said James Knightley, chief international economist for ING.
A Biden presidency with a majority Republican Senate could offer the worst case for the economy in 2021 because Republicans are likely to oppose a substantial stimulus package, said Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank.
That would be bad news for the millions of low- and middle-income Americans out of work and struggling to find jobs in sectors such as travel and entertainment that are likely to remain moribund until the pandemic is under better control.
A scenario where Trump is re-elected and the Senate stays in Republican control could potentially result in more stimulus because Trump has advocated for more stimulus and could have more sway if he is re-elected, Luzzetti said.
Whatever the election outcome, any aid package should provide additional assistance for the unemployed, help for small businesses and assistance for state and local governments, to keep economic momentum going, Luzzetti said.
Ex-libTard should respect Tibetsun and provide citations for unnatural claims.
America media will rarely mention the Addelsons n Mersers n Kochs and the hidden vulture capitalists who camouflage the lack of democracy in the USA.
Trump is not a racist: he is worse… someone who will use whatever to rule and laugh at viewers who believe reality shows have any connection to reality.
Don’t you worry if you do a little research all the evidences is there in social media but your CNN and the other deep state media are not going to show it. There is abundance of evidence of irregularities and fraud. Even twitter and facebook are giving a hard time but nevertheless all of the evidences have been gathered and will be taken to court.
Its not about Democrat or Republican. They are the 2 sides of the same coin. Trump is the only one who can expose the deep state and wake up millions.
You choose to take the blue pill and that will be your reality. I took the red pill long time ago.
This is a historic moment in US and world history. US voters showed up in historic high numbers. The corporate fossil fuel money, the Christians who push prosperity gospel and morality tests, and White folks who have watched their neighborhoods run over by coloreds since Republicans enacted laws to punish workers rather than corporations that encouraged migrations to drive down wages and employee benefits have showed up in record numbers for Trump.
Trump will protect corporations and the rich; Biden will too but the poor and rational and ethical rich will benefit too.
Biden will be the next President but will have to be a real rather than a reality President.
A historic moment indeed for the US of A. Never ever has it witnessed in its history this kind of blatant election fraud. Never in its history i’m sure have they seen the dead come back from their graves to vote for their beloved Democrat Biden. Many people who have been dead and gone for ages have been found in the voters list and their ballots cast. The oldest so far was born in 1850. No wonder Biden didn’t feel the need to campaign as he was confident the demographic of the dead people would vote for him. Exactly 2 weeks ago Joe Biden bragged about having “the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics”. India should send its EC to conduct a free and fair election in the US with no mail in ballots or dead people voting. A country like USA with voting system worse than the so called 3rd world country.
You can check out the website- Project Veritas. It has all the info and evidences of the election frauds committed by the poll workers, USPs, the bureaucrats and even the sec of state of Pennsylvania overseeing the vote count.
For the last 4 years they called him a racist everyday and yet according to the exit poll Trump did better in 2020 with every race and gender except white men.
Some of our fellow Tibetans shamelessly parroting the same old narrative of “white supremacist” and Trump is helping the rich etc. knowing very well all the big techs, big media, Soros and all the billionaires are long time democrats. Trump cares about the working class, small and medium businesses. The billionaires want to get rid of middle class so that they can control and enslave the poor. Was shocked to hear Nancy Pelosi on CNN interview with wolf Blitzer say how they feed the poor, like referring to some animals.