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India must wake up to Chinese threat

By Shishir Gupta | Hindustan Times

Shishir Gupta Photographer unknown

After driving at a snail’s pace on an axle breaking virtually non-existent mountain road from Gangtok, truth hits one hard at the windy 14,140 feet high Nathu La on the ancient silk route to Lhasa in Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) of China.

From the zero-line of the heavily guarded pass, starts a two-lane black top road which traverses the rarefied Tibetan plateau and reaches Lhasa, some 428 kilometres away, in just seven hours on vehicle speeds up to 160 kmph. The road quality and its capability in military terms is enough to sober any Indian jingoist advocating a pro-active stance against Beijing as the same disparity prevails all along the 4,057 km Line of Actual Control (LAC) dividing India and China. Available figures on ground reveal that the Chinese Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) in Tibet has become more lean and mean from the past with at least four rapid reaction forces backing up the regular border deployments. Given that the Chinese PLA still views India through the Tibet prism since Dalai Lama crossed over to Tezpur in 1959, Beijing has dramatically increased its military capabilities through infrastructure up-gradation along the LAC since 1995. Consider this:

• Roads: connection to all counties in Tibet with borders roads has been completed with up-gradation of all major highways. The road network increased from 51,000 kms in 2008 to 58,000 kms in 2010 and work is on to extend it up to 70,000 kms.

• Railways: The 1142 km Qinghai Tibet Railroadfrom Golmund to Lhasa is now being extended to Shigatse and Yadong in the Chumbi Valley and facing the strategic Silliguri corridor. Rail connectivity is also being planned to Link Kathmandu, Myanmar, Bhutan, Pakistan and Central Asian Republics.

• Airfields: There are eight airfields in Tibet with five air bases and another 10 in the adjacent East Turkistan (Ch: Xinjiang) region. Plans areafoot to construct another 22 airfields by 2020.

In military terms, this translates into PLA’s logistical capacity of 31,880 tonnes per day. While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has openly talked about an assertive China, he was told by Indian military this April that China could amass some half a million troops within 21 days in a high threat scenario on the LAC without even mentioning the strategic disparity. The Chinese muscle flexing for political and not territorial gains at least this decade would come from land and not from sea as PLA Navy is still acquiring long legs and Indian Ocean/South China Sea is priority four after Yellow Sea, Korean Peninsula and Taiwan Straits.

The hard fact is that Indian capabilities at present are not a patch on China and even the “David vs Goliath” theory would come undone in case Beijing were to just lean on New Delhi. While Raisina Hill led by PM Singh has taken conscious steps to upgrade its infrastructure along the LAC since 2004, work is painfully slow and bogged down in environmental clearances. Besides there are many in South Block who still believe that LAC infrastructure up-gradation would help only the Chinese in case of a military adventure.

India’s Naval capacity building suffers from the same Hindu rate of growth leading to cost escalation in frigate and destroyer construction up to 260% and massive delays. At this rate, even the access denial strategy in the Indian Ocean would not work against the PLA Navy. The situation on ground is alarming enough to convince our strategic thinkers and planners to talk less and focus on the job at hand.

The seven vital points on the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh, identified by then PM’s Special Envoy Shyam Saran as part of Border Infrastructure Report, to be linked through four inter-basin roads is virtually still on the drawing board as there are no helicopters available to lift the machines and materials since state chief minister Dorjee Khandu died in a crash last April.

The proposed highway linking up Daulat Beg Oldi to Demchok via Chusul along the LAC in eastern Ladakh sector is work in progress. The same could be said for revival of old airfields facing Aksai Chin and the road up-gradation situation no different in middle sector in Barahoti plains in north Uttarakhand. Yet, the proposal for beefing up defences on the northern borders till such time infra-capacity builds up is at present at the mercy of a finance ministry mandarin, who believes that this is unnecessary expenditure in the name of national security.

With China-Pakistan theatres getting inter-linkedup more closely by the day, red flag has already gone up on Raisina Hill and Borders Road Organisation (BRO) has been asked to drop all work and only concentrate on strategic roads. This decision was taken by cabinet months ago but is still in the process of being implemented.

The urgency is such that the UPA should look at the possibility of setting up of an empowered group with financial powers on the lines of E Sreedharan’s Delhi Metro model to take on border infrastructure on a war footing. The infrastructure augmentation should be matched by naval capacity building and leveraging of close diplomatic ties with countries like the US, Japan, South Korea and South-East Asia in order to prepare for rising China. For the latter, defence minister AK Antony and his like minded friends in UPA would have to shed their cold warrior mindset as the Beijing’s string of pearls strategy could practically choke New Delhi both from land and sea.

The 18 September earthquake has made New Delhi sit-up it as Sikkim including Nathu La was cut-off and the alternate highway still not complete due to land acquisition problems. Bravado can turn into fear in such situations.

Copyright © 2011 HT Media Limited

Published in Hindustan Times