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Changing Sino-India relation and Nepal

By Sujit Mainali | Telegraph Nepal

Sujit Mainali is a correspondent for Himalaya Times, a daily in Nepali Language. He is pursuing bachelor’s degree in liberal arts and sciences, 5th semester at the Himalayan White House International College, Kathmandu. Photographer unknown

As the famous traditional proverb goes, “Nepal is a yam between two boulders”, the boulders seem to have come much closer — further sandwiching the yam. Of late, our neighbours have put Nepal in their top watch-list.

Recent marathon visits of senior leaders from our two neighbours underscore Nepal’s strategic importance for them. However, neighbours can remain good friends until their concern doesn’t hurt your sovereignty. The latest concern expressed covertly and overtly by our neighbours has crossed all limits in mutilating our sense of sovereignty.

The two Asian giants are in an intense race to become the super power in global perspectives.

The competition has got new dimension after nuclear deal was signed between India and US. Thus, difficulties observed in Sino-India relationship is ought to leave multidimensional effect in Nepal. Therefore, it is high time for Nepal to adopt appropriate foreign policy in changed scenario.

King Pritivinarayan Shah in his ‘Dibya Upedesh (Devine Instruction)’ had called southern neighbour as ‘cunning’ and had instructed his successors to remain close with northern neighbour for national benefit. This is the first clear statement given by Nepalese rulers to theorise foreign policy. But after the rise of Janga Bahadur Rana, Nepal developed intimacy with East India Company. From such intimacy, Nepal got back its lost territories in Banke, Bardiya, Kailali and Kanchanpur from the East India Company. But in the form of its compensation, neo-independent India made Mohan Samsher, the last Rana Prime Minister to sign the most infamous 1950 Nepal-India Treaty. Through the treaty, India ensured its political and economic dominance over the sovereign Himalayan nation.

After King Mahendra sacked democratic government and imposed party-less Panchayat system, Nepal maintained closer relation with China. During the active regime of King Birendra, Nepal had successfully suppressed ‘Khampa Rebel’, an armed plot designed by CIA to foster ‘Free Tibet Movement’. China’s feeling of gratitude towards Nepal for its effort to strengthen internal security of China is showing its influence till now.

But during each democratic regime, Nepal’s relation with China and India remained inconsistent. However, due to excessive influence of India in Nepalese politics, the presence of China in Nepali politics remained dimmer and weaker in democratic Nepal.

After the formation of government under the leadership of Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), immature foreign policy adopted by Nepal to remain close with both China and India has made Nepal’s foreign policy weaker. Hesitation to maintain political and economic ties with China and lack of effort to set bottom-line in the issue of Madhesh and Sharing of Water Resources has exposed Maoists’ ability in foreign diplomacy. In the near future, threat of clash between China and India is growing. Therefore, to cope with difficult changing regional scenario, Nepal needs to perform excessive homework to formulate appropriate foreign policy.

Competition for limited energy supply, border dispute, diverse view over utility of water and immense desire of both Asian giants to snatch regional power is adding fuel in the eroding China-India relationship. After US got formal entry in the politics of South Asia through India-US nuclear deal, China had pointed towards the necessity of making the deal inclusive. American and Indian analyst argue that the term ‘inclusiveness’ used by China is directed towards developing Pakistan as a nuclear rich country along with India to maintain regional balance. If we agree with this view it will be easier for us to conclude that Sino-Indian relationship has worsened after Indo-US nuclear deal. Several other incidents are further deteriorating China’s relation with India. It has brought more complication in regional politics.

China’s border dispute with India got shape after China invaded India on 1962. Since last few years, border tensions between the two courtiers are on the rise. India accuses China of illegally occupying more than 14,000 square miles of its territory on its northern border in Kashmir. But China is claiming over more than 34,000 square miles land in India’s northeastern State of Arunachal Pradesh.

China is even insisting the Tawang district, a pilgrimage site for Tibetans in Arunachal Pradesh, to be ceded to China. But India has made it clear that any areas with settled populations would be excluded from territorial exchanges. To pressure India on the issue, China is strengthening its military infrastructure along the border and establishing a network of road, rail, and air links in the region. India’s strategist believe that through such suspicious activities, China is intending to revive 1962’s war. To strengthen defence system, China has adopted policy of making massive investment in the development of transportation network. It is proved from the huge amount recently poured by China in Tibet and Xinjiang province for strengthening transportation system.

To fuel the conflicting situation, India too has announced different development activities in disputed land. In Siliguri corridor, a most vulnerable place of India, which is also a meeting point of India, China, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Burma; and in the disputed land of Jammu and Kashmir, India has recently strengthened its defence system. This has manifested the tension growing between the Asian giant.

Despite accepting Tibet as a part of China by Indian government, the declaration is widely criticised at public level in India. Rivers like Ganga, Sutlej, Brahmaputra, Sindhu, etc, which are regarded as the lifeline of South Asia, originate from Tibet. Thus, to ensure safety corner in water conflict which is supposed to happen in near future, India, with help of other western nation, is assisting ‘Free Tibet Movement’. India had already criticised China’s idea of diverting rivers which originate from the Tibetan plateau for the purpose of building world largest channel.

Within Asia, both China and India takes each other as their major opponent. In political circle of South Asian Region, India’s influence is pervasive. However, in the public level, China is more popular. These power thirsty Asian giants are eager to exploit resources of their neighbour countries for their economic and strategic prosperity. China and India, both have exhibited their eagerness to utilise 30-80 trillion cubic feet natural gas embedded in Bangladesh and 51 trillion cubic feet embedded in Burma. Such aggression of China and India is another potential cause which may invite conflict between them.

Both China and India are the largest consumer of energy. Study made by International Energy Agency (IEA) and several other institutions has concluded that energy demand of these countries will increase in tremendous ratio in the near future. Currently, China and India are respectively fulfilling 50 and 70 percent of total energy consumption from import.

Both countries are importing significant portion of energy from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and other countries located in the surrounding of the Caspian Sea. Similarly, African countries like Nigeria and Sudan are also addressing energy demand of China and India. In all above energy supplying countries, political instability is rampant. Therefore, to control over the limited supply of energy, conflict is ought to rise between China and India.

Strategically, Nepal is of immense importance for both China and India vis-à-vis preserving their interests in the region. After the Beijing Olympics, overwhelming interest exhibited by the Chinese authorities towards Nepal, exhibits Nepal’s strategic significance.

At the same time, India is intending to show that Nepal has become a center of criminal activities in the international arena. After recent Mumbai blast, Indian media had alleged Nepal for providing safety to Pakistan based terrorist group.

Subhahuddin Ahamad, a ‘think tank’ of Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Indian media claimed, was in Kathmandu, he was plotting the Mumbai attack being based in Kathmandu. Indian media strongly carried this issue. And at the same time, the Indian authorities gave extreme pressure to Nepal to sign the extradition treaty. It also has manifested the growing interest of India towards Nepal.

After Deputy PM and Defence Minister of Nepal pointed towards the necessity of triangular consensus between Nepal, China and India to resolve Kalapani issue, horrified Indian establishment immediately sent its foreign minister to Nepal to manage the situation. Immediately after the visit of Indian FM, Nepal publicly agreed to exclude China from Kalapani issue. Such horrifying state of India is loaded with several serious meaning. Similarly, Power Ministry of India has passed a policy to facilitate each household with electricity in coming five years. At the same time India is heading to fulfill increasing demand of drinking and irrigation water. Building intercontinental waterways and larger channel is major agenda of India to foster its economy. In all these events, it is easy to find the role of Nepal and its resources.

From all above fact, it is clear that regional significance of Nepal is increasing in the changed scenario. Therefore it is very high time for Nepalese authority for required preparation to formulate appropriate foreign policy.

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Published in Telegraph Nepal