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Forecasting Social Unrest and the search for sensationalism

By Brendan John Worrell | China Daily

There are concerns the current context is ripe for disturbance.

This fear is fed by the current economic downturn where an official 20 million migrant workers have lost their jobs.

Alongside this group stand 6 million university graduates, plus many Chinese who have studied abroad and can’t find work and have returned home, plus others who have been working abroad though have recently have been laid off, plus .7 to .8 million graduates from the year before who never managed to find a job.

Now into this ‘melting pot of mayhem’ add several key anniversary dates that fall this year to create an aura of ensuing doom and gloom. Last night’s fire next to the CCTV tower is now also being mentioned as an ominous sign of a troubled year ahead.

Rather timely, tomorrow sees a presentation by Wang Erping of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, under the banner, Forecasting Social Unrest. His team at the CAS Institute of Psychology has apparently constructed a methodology for predicting domestic disturbance.

Paralleling these issues others also worry China has excessive nationalist tendencies, which if not managed, could spin out of control endangering the world.

This line of thought makes reference to the CNN fiasco that took place March/ April last year. It’s backed up by the ‘anti-French agenda’ that developed in response to Sarkozy meeting the Dalai Lama and the manhandling of paralympic fencer JinJing at the Paris Torch Relay last year. Conclusive evidence is the incident on 19 May last year during the memorial to the earthquake victims where crowds en masse were chanting “jiayou Zhonguo, jiayou Wenchuan”, which concerned many an observer.

Definitely times are tough, definitely a small minority may take the opportunity to try and create disorder and definitely the Chinese people love their country with a burning impassioned heart but if there is one thing that dominates above all else it’s that the overwhelming majority in the middle kingdom value stability, condemn civil disorder and consider themselves a peace loving people. Remember the keystone within the Chinese philosophy of life is the concept of harmony.

Indeed huge reserves of energy have been snowballing over recent years no more evident than in the breathtaking sprawl of many a mega city. We’ve had space walks, bullet trains, home made jets and more. Economically the country has found some stride though the current hurdle is certainly a challenge. Environmentally hard lessons are being learnt but measures are being taken to rectify this equation — no more evident than the drought currently blighting the north and its response.

However if we are expecting the country to break out in civil war or to take up arms to expel some pent up rage on another nation then we may be disappointed.

The fourteen countries bordering China have been ironing out past problems.

Some may fear a ‘Lama loving Obama and hop-a-long Hillary’ but relations between the US and China are getting better not worse. Many feel the style of Barack complements the Chinese mode of diplomacy and consensus building.

Trade protectionism and “Buy America” has its limits. China is awash with American companies and their goods and we are not planning to boycott KFC, McDonalds, Coke, Pepsi, Chrysler, Boeing, Buick and Brangelina any time soon.

If Team Obama can resist the urge to sell weapons to Taiwan to make a quick buck to fund another bailout then hopes remain. Remember it was the Pentagon’s promise breaking $6.5-billion arms sales to Taiwan back in October, a Halloween Hamper of 30 Apache attack helicopters and 330 Patriot missiles, that led to the current cessation of military ties between the US and China.

As for Japan, the first stop on Hilary’s upcoming Tour de Asia, apart from minor murmurings regarding the Diaoyu islands, things here have been on the mend. Goodness gracious even last week the Japanese Supreme Court ordered a rightist scholar, and publisher to pay a combined 4 million yen in damages to Xia Shuqin, aged 80 regarding events in Nanjing in 1937.

Which reminds me, on this day 70 years ago, the Japanese Fifth Fleet took Hainan where an estimated third of the island’s male population were executed for resisting. Hainan in particular was infamous for the imperial Japanese army’s use of sex slaves, and to this day “comfort women” who were forced into military brothels, there were a reported 67 on the island, have been refused an apology from any Japanese government, let alone compensation though a few are still alive today.

But Japan during the Second World War, is not the Japan of today. Actually in many respects it is a land under occupation. Contentious US military bases remain scattered across her territory and the continual domination of the Liberal Democratic Party for more than half a century contradicts the legitimacy or appropriateness of the imposed western model of governance for her people.

So let’s just remember seven months after Hainan was taken Hitler launched his invasion of Poland and World War II erupted. The economic circumstances and pathetic statesmanship that culminated in that global conflagration are not so distant or so divergent that they couldn’t be repeated again today. But precedent would suggest others, not China, would be the antagonists in this event.

Forecasting social unrest, domestically or internationally, may have as much success as predicting earthquakes.

Copyright © 2009 China Daily

Published in China Daily